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Welcome to the CJP interview with Gary Langer, ABC News' Polling Director. We've done this one before, but with polls being used today to tell candidates to stay in, get out, change positions and disown their pastors, we felt we could all use another does of Gary's guidance on polls, pilocarpine eye drops online without prescription. Which ones are right, buy pilocarpine eye drops once daily. Should we believe them. Approved pilocarpine eye drops pharmacy, What about cell phones. Gary was kind enough to take us through the art and science of polling for the 2008 elections. .. Pilocarpine eye drops online without prescription, CJP: You’re the polling Director for ABC News, what does that mean?
GL: I cover the beat of public opinion for the news division. That works in three ways. We do our own polls, we look at other poll results to see to what extent it can inform us and make us smarter, and we evaluate other research that’s presented to us to see if it’s of good enough quality for our air.
CJP: I have found that there are different kinds of organizations doing the polling, in terms of news organizations, universities, partisan pollsters or professional pollsters. It seems like everybody’s getting in on the race. For people who are seeing something that says “A poll said this today,†how should they evaluate the source of the polling?
GL: Before ABC News will use any polling data, we require a detailed methodology of the poll, the complete questionnaire including all questions asked, the overall results for each question. These are the areas where polls can go off the rails, either through bias or flawed methodology, leading or stacked or loaded questions, or through misanalysis or cherry picking of the data.
We have to keep in mind that there is an enormous amount of survey research before us, some of which is very high quality, and a lot of which is pure junk, produced not to assess and understand public attitudes, but to promote someone’s product, agenda or point of view. As consumers, drug pilocarpine eye drops online purchase, it is essential to consider the source.
CJP: So for consumers, Order discount pilocarpine eye drops, what are the questions we need to ask ourselves about a poll, and what are the ideal answers?
GL: A very fundamental question is who paid for it?
CJP: How would you find that out?
GL: If it’s not reported, I wouldn’t give that poll any regard whatsoever. Don’t even let it enter your consciousness. It is very rare that any organization would produce and circulate a poll that found results counter to its purpose in life, buy pilocarpine eye drops online australia. The vast majority of commercially sponsored surveys, Buy pilocarpine eye drops low price, whether they are coming from political groups, interest groups, corporate or other business interest, cheap pilocarpine eye drops online, are intentionally biased. They’ve been produced to promote a product or an agenda, Where to order pilocarpine eye drops, or just for publicity. A basic rule I would give you is that a privately sponsored survey that came from a sponsor with an interest in the outcome should not be taken seriously.
CJP: Are there any great brands in polling, in addition of course to ABC News, and any bad brands in polling- names we should and should not trust?
GL: News organizations do polls as part of their responsibility to independently and accurately report the news. That’s why we go to the time and expense of doing news polls. It’s not like polls wouldn’t exist, order pilocarpine eye drops overnight delivery, but they would all be done by somebody with an interest in the outcome. Polls produced by independent organizations are qualitatively different than data produced by sponsored research.
I also think that news polls need to be held to the same level of scrutiny as we provide. We put our detailed methodologies, Canadian pilocarpine eye drops, along with complete surveys, up on our website, and I would ask the same of any other survey.
CJP: In terms of scrutiny, buy cheapest pilocarpine eye drops, if someone opens up the paper and sees a news poll that gives the sample size, Buying pilocarpine eye drops online, the dates it was conducted and the margin of error, what should they be looking for to have confidence in those results?
GL: Let me first say that the news media have long indulged themselves in the lazy luxury of being both data hungry and math-phobic, and it is unacceptable. You can pick up almost any newspaper and see unreliable, cheap pilocarpine eye drops tablets, invalid, Buy pilocarpine eye drops from india, misleading, misrepresented survey research reported as if it were the real thing. It’s a real failing of the news media and one they need to address, and some are.
I’d like to be able to say you could pick up the paper and that every survey you see is reliable. Far too often that is not the case, pilocarpine eye drops pills, so I would have to say: wisely select your media source. You could even ask the editor of ombudsman what they do to hold and enforce standards for the polls and surveys are reported in their paper. And if they have no standards, Pilocarpine eye drops free sample, maybe you want to pick another paper.
CJP: So what are good standards for a poll?
GL: You want to start with a probability sample, a random sample, not a self-selected sample. This is done in the U.S, pilocarpine eye drops online without prescription. through random digit-dialing for telephone interviews. Internet samples do not rise to the level of reliability we need in our survey research.
CJP: In political polls, Buy pilocarpine eye drops, I see the terms “likely voters†and “registered votersâ€. What difference does it make?
GL: You can poll a general population; you can poll people who tell you they are registered to vote, and people who tell you they are likely to vote. The greater distance from an election, the more these groups all look pretty much the same.
As you get closer to an election, generic pilocarpine eye drops online, they can start to look different and you want to see the difference reflected in the reporting. Also, Pilocarpine eye drops discount, you very much want to know how a “likely voter†is defined or the size of the group. I’ve seen polls in Iowa that say they are among likely voters but they cover very large segments of the Iowa population, when caucus goers are a very small portion of the population. It’s much more expensive to drill down to voters who are actually likely to attend a caucus.
CJP: How does ABC News differentiate? How do you know if they’re likely to attend?
GL: We ask them.
CJP: Oh, that makes sense.
GL: There are other ways, buy discount pilocarpine eye drops online, but asking them is a good place to start.
CJP: Two complaints I hear a lot from people are, Generic pilocarpine eye drops, one, the question about more and more people having only cell phones, when random dialing does not include cell phones.
GL: The number of cell-only households in the country is about 14 percent, pilocarpine eye drops online cheap, and it’s of interest and concern to us. But it’s also entirely possible to include cell-only respondents by drawing a separate survey of cell-only individuals and interviewing them and including them. Pilocarpine eye drops buy online, There’s work being done to see if that’s necessary.
Non-coverage is only an issue if the group is large enough to make a difference in your overall results and if the diversity of attitudes and opinions within those groups on the measures that you care about are sufficiently different. In other words, if a person in a cell-phone-only household has pretty much the same views as everyone else, then their exclusion doesn’t make any difference, fda approved pilocarpine eye drops. All the research that’s been done to date indicates that this is the case. But it’s something that we’re continuing to track, Pilocarpine eye drops from india, and if and when necessary, we will make changes.
CJP: I also hear from people who say that they’ve never been contacted by a pollster, so how can this be real?
GL: That’s human nature. The old pollsters’ joke goes that if you don’t believe in random sampling, order no rx pilocarpine eye drops, then the next time the doctor wants to take a blood test, Pilocarpine eye drops online without a prescription, have him take it all. The point being that a tiny drop of blood drawn from your body is enough to portray or understand the components of all of the blood in your body. Your red cell count, your white cell count, the cholesterol, cheap pilocarpine eye drops in canada, you name it. And it’s enough regardless of the size of your body, Pilocarpine eye drops no rx required, no matter if you are a white mouse or a man or a women or someone the size of Pluto.
That is random sampling and it works with people the same way it works with blood.
CJP: Even though people aren’t as homogeneous as blood?
GL: Blood is less homogeneous than you think.
CJP: I actually don’t anything about blood.
GL: If you’d like, you can use minestrone soup as a metaphor.
But the real objection from people who say, "How can my opinion be expressed in a survey in which I was not personally included?" is a personal objection rather than a sampling objection. It sounds wrong, canadian pharmacy pilocarpine eye drops, almost un-American. But the basic thing to understand is that all individuals reach their opinions through completely personal and idiosyncratic paths. Nonetheless, Buy discount pilocarpine eye drops, we all arrive via those paths to the same point of decision, where you either support candidate A, candidate B, buy pilocarpine eye drops online without prescription, or are undecided.
CJP: As Iowa and New Hampshire approach, Pilocarpine eye drops online sales, we’re hearing that the national polls don’t matter- it’s the early states that matter.
GL: If you care more about who is ahead in a state, you should look at a good, quality poll from that state. If you care more about how our nation is coming together to evaluate the candidates and the issues as we move toward a decision, find pilocarpine eye drops on internet, then national polls capture that very well.
CJP: I also hear guidance that if you average the results of several polls then you’ll have an indication of who’s really up and who’s really down. Is that good advice?
GL: I don’t think it’s good advice because it ignores the issue of quality in polls. So you may be averaging surveys that are well done and surveys that are poorly done, Buy pilocarpine eye drops cheap, which s not a good idea. We do need to find our way away from this false notion of pinpoint accuracy in polling. A poll is an estimate. This is not laser surgery we’re doing on an eyeball here.
CJP: For somebody who is seeing information about a poll, how would you quantify a reliable size for a poll?
GL: It makes no difference. You can have a very large number of interviews in an Internet click-in survey that should be absolutely meaningless. You want a representative sample, not to get hung up on sample size.
A probability sample in a good, discount pilocarpine eye drops, quality representative public opinion poll of 100 cases is a sufficient size to start analyzing subgroups. The margin of sampling error is about 10 points in a group of 100 people. The biggest danger in polling is not size, Pilocarpine eye drops free delivery, but over-hyped, over-analyzed data.
CJP: So your biggest piece of advice for news consumers is to consider the source.
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