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By CJP | May 22, 2008
   In an email to supporters yesterday, Hillary Clinton wrote, “I’ve won more votes than anyone running for the Democratic nomination in the history of our party.”  She’s also said repeatedly that Barack Obama may be leading in the delegate count, but she is winning in the popular vote.  Is she? The answer is yes and no, depending on which states you count and how you count them. Here are the building blocks for the popular vote calculation:
- The popular vote of the primaries that have already taken place.
- An estimate of the votes cast in caucuses in Iowa, Nevada, Maine and Washington State. Those four states count by delegate, rather than popular vote, and have not released an individual vote count.
- The popular vote in Florida, where neither Clinton nor Obama campaigned.
- The popular vote in Michigan, where Clinton left her name on the ballot, but Obama took his off. One vote count gives Obama all 40% of votes for “uncommitted,” but another count gives Obama zero votes.
The only scenario in which Clinton wins the popular vote is with the uncontested primary votes + the caucus estimates + Florida + Michigan, in which Obama gets zero votes.  With that math, she’s beating Obama by 0.1% of the vote. See all the numbers HERE. So she is winning! Sort of.
Also, remember that it’s a delegate race, so Clinton is making this argument to keep herself alive for the last three contests, to pressure the Super D’s to follow the “will of the people,” and to put pressure on the DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee, which has to sort this mess out at its meeting next Saturday. As always, stay tuned, Janes….
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